Our Models
Aviation Integrated Model (AIM)
The Aviation Integrated Model (AIM) is a global aviation systems model which simulates interactions between passengers, airlines, airports and other system actors into the future, with the goal of providing insight into how policy levers and other projected system changes will affect aviation’s externalities and economic impacts. The model was originally developed in 2006-2009 with UK research council funding and has been subsequently updated as part of multiple research projects.
AIM is structured around a series of interlinked modules that simulate current and future levels of global airport-to-airport demand, flight schedules, arrival delay, technology uptake, aircraft performance, local and global emissions, aircraft noise, and the related environmental costs and economic benefits under a wide range of policy conditions.
Modelling the Net-Zero target
Projected route-level airline passenger, 2050
These modules allow the simulation of system changes which involve feedback between different components of the aviation system, such as demand rebound effects when applying policies that reduce operating costs or the ability to depend on lower-cost sources of feedstock at lower levels of SAF demand. The model’s quick runtime (around an hour to evaluate a scenario to 2050 on a desktop computer) and fully open-source nature makes it a valuable tool for long-term scenario analysis.
AIM has been central to multiple studies on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, the evaluation of policy schemes and its open-source version has been used widely by and for industry, governments, and NGOs, including the IEA, the UK DfT and BEIS, and IATA.
Airline Behaviour Model (ABM)
More recently, our work has focused on the local and global implications of airport capacity expansions, the introduction of disruptive technology, and regional and global ambitions towards a zero-climate impact aviation system. Anticipating the propagating impacts of such interventions requires novel, higher-resolution modelling approaches.
Our Airline Behaviour Model (ABM) simulates the profit-maximising behaviour of competing air carriers through adjusting segment flight frequencies, itinerary airfares, and aircraft deployment within their respective network, along with the utility-maximising behaviour of consumers. This model is currently operational for the North American, European, and Asian markets, along with the trans-Atlantic corridor and we are presently expanding it to a global scale.
2040 LH2 Aircraft Uptake
Example KPIs from ABM Output
The ABM has been used in collaborative studies with Rolls-Royce, Heathrow Airport, easyJet, the Aerospace Technology Institute, and other partners. Example applications include defining economically feasible design windows of disruptive aircraft technologies, simulating the impact of fuel price increases on the aviation system, estimating airlines’ willingness-to-pay for sustainable aviation fuels, quantifying the value of airport slots, and computing the propagating effects of airport capacity expansions.
Most recently, we have applied the profit-maximising behaviour to airports. Our Airport Economic Model takes passenger and freight flows from the Airline Behaviour Model as inputs to return the profit-optimum aeronautical charges. This model is currently being tested for the European market and will be expanded globally.